tXtFL Bowl 4.0

The results are in; have a look!

Based on 1000 simulations run on tXtFL 2.0.0alpha2, completed by February 5, 2010, 11:51AM PST. The Saints are predicted to significantly edge the Colts, 33-14, with paired t-test p < 0.000, standard deviation = 11.714, CI = [ -19.2174, -17.7606 ].

Will this year's game be the upset tXtFL is anticipating? Here's the comparison to Super Bowl XLIV, with predictions from Madden NFL 10 thrown into the mix:

Both Madden and tXtFL predicted the winner, the presumptive underdog of the whole affair. What we would like to direct your attention to are the scores themselves. Here's what Madden had to say about its track record leading up to the Bowl:

Utilizing each team's current roster and the latest player statistics, Madden NFL 10 was able to accurately predict the outcome of both the NFC and AFC Championship games within a margin of three points for each game.

This time tXtFL pulled within a 3-point margin for each team in the big game. As the presumptive underdog of the simulators, tXtFL would like to say a little Who Dat of its own.

To learn more about the predictive game engine underlying tXtFL and our plans for its future, check out our sports simulation model roadmap.